{"id":2134,"date":"2009-03-10T13:54:38","date_gmt":"2009-03-10T12:54:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/?p=2134"},"modified":"2009-03-10T13:54:38","modified_gmt":"2009-03-10T12:54:38","slug":"drei-faktoren-fur-kommendes-chaos","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/2009\/03\/10\/drei-faktoren-fur-kommendes-chaos_2134","title":{"rendered":"Drei Faktoren f\u00fcr kommendes Chaos"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Der Wirtschaftshistoriker <a href=\"http:\/\/www.foreignpolicy.com\/story\/cms.php?story_id=4681&amp;print=1\">Niall Ferguson<\/a> sieht alle drei Hauptgr\u00fcnde f\u00fcr den Ausbruch politischer Gewalt in Weltkriegsdimension erf\u00fcllt: Ethnischer Zerfall, \u00f6konomische Unsicherheit und der Zerfall eines Weltreichs. Die Ressourcen des Weltpolizisten USA f\u00fcr seine immer gr\u00f6\u00dferen Aufgaben werden rapide schwinden.<\/p>\n<p><em>I concluded, in\u00a0<\/em><em>The War of the World<\/em><em>, that three factors made the location and timing of lethal organized violence more or less predictable in the last century. The first factor was ethnic disintegration: Violence was worst in areas of mounting ethnic tension. The second factor was economic volatility: The greater the magnitude of economic shocks, the more likely conflict was. And the third factor was empires in decline: When structures of imperial rule crumbled, battles for political power were most bloody.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>&#8230;<br \/>\n<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>With the U.S. rate of GDP growth set to contract between 2 and 3 percentage points this year, and with the official unemployment rate likely to approach 10 percent, all attention in Washington will remain focused on a nearly $1 trillion stimulus package. Caution has been thrown to the wind by both the Federal Reserve and the Treasury. The projected deficit for 2009 is already soaring above the trillion-dollar mark, more than 8 percent of GDP. Few commentators are asking what all this means for U.S. foreign policy.<br \/>\n<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>The answer is obvious: <\/em><strong><em>The resources available for policing the world are certain to be reduced for the foreseeable future.<\/em><\/strong><em> That will be especially true if foreign investors start demanding higher yields on the bonds they buy from the United States or simply begin dumping dollars in exchange for other currencies.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Economic volatility, plus ethnic disintegration, plus an empire in decline: That combination is about the most lethal in geopolitics. We now have all three. The age of upheaval starts now.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Der Wirtschaftshistoriker Niall Ferguson sieht alle drei Hauptgr\u00fcnde f\u00fcr den Ausbruch politischer Gewalt in Weltkriegsdimension erf\u00fcllt: Ethnischer Zerfall, \u00f6konomische Unsicherheit und der Zerfall eines Weltreichs. Die Ressourcen des Weltpolizisten USA f\u00fcr seine immer gr\u00f6\u00dferen Aufgaben werden rapide schwinden. I concluded, in\u00a0The War of the World, that three factors made the location and timing of lethal [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":54,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[152,125],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2134","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-aussenpolitik","category-usa"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Drei Faktoren f\u00fcr kommendes Chaos - J\u00f6rg Lau<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/2009\/03\/10\/drei-faktoren-fur-kommendes-chaos_2134\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"de_DE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Drei Faktoren f\u00fcr kommendes Chaos - J\u00f6rg Lau\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Der Wirtschaftshistoriker Niall Ferguson sieht alle drei Hauptgr\u00fcnde f\u00fcr den Ausbruch politischer Gewalt in Weltkriegsdimension erf\u00fcllt: Ethnischer Zerfall, \u00f6konomische Unsicherheit und der Zerfall eines Weltreichs. 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I concluded, in\u00a0The War of the World, that three factors made the location and timing of lethal [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/2009\/03\/10\/drei-faktoren-fur-kommendes-chaos_2134\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"J\u00f6rg Lau\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2009-03-10T12:54:38+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"J\u00f6rg Lau\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Geschrieben von\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"J\u00f6rg Lau\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Gesch\u00e4tzte Lesezeit\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1\u00a0Minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/2009\/03\/10\/drei-faktoren-fur-kommendes-chaos_2134\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/2009\/03\/10\/drei-faktoren-fur-kommendes-chaos_2134\",\"name\":\"Drei Faktoren f\u00fcr kommendes Chaos - J\u00f6rg Lau\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2009-03-10T12:54:38+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2009-03-10T12:54:38+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/#\/schema\/person\/55f0be9bfac24815791fbc852b042f57\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/2009\/03\/10\/drei-faktoren-fur-kommendes-chaos_2134#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"de\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/2009\/03\/10\/drei-faktoren-fur-kommendes-chaos_2134\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/2009\/03\/10\/drei-faktoren-fur-kommendes-chaos_2134#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Startseite\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Drei Faktoren f\u00fcr kommendes Chaos\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/\",\"name\":\"J\u00f6rg Lau\",\"description\":\"Ein Blog \u00fcber Religion und Politik\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"de\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/#\/schema\/person\/55f0be9bfac24815791fbc852b042f57\",\"name\":\"J\u00f6rg Lau\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"de\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a5fe39bf4f5335b8bac36eefa0b41467221b1598bfea5f05159a0199e391eed0?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a5fe39bf4f5335b8bac36eefa0b41467221b1598bfea5f05159a0199e391eed0?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"J\u00f6rg Lau\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/author\/joerg-lau\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Drei Faktoren f\u00fcr kommendes Chaos - J\u00f6rg Lau","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/2009\/03\/10\/drei-faktoren-fur-kommendes-chaos_2134","og_locale":"de_DE","og_type":"article","og_title":"Drei Faktoren f\u00fcr kommendes Chaos - J\u00f6rg Lau","og_description":"Der Wirtschaftshistoriker Niall Ferguson sieht alle drei Hauptgr\u00fcnde f\u00fcr den Ausbruch politischer Gewalt in Weltkriegsdimension erf\u00fcllt: Ethnischer Zerfall, \u00f6konomische Unsicherheit und der Zerfall eines Weltreichs. 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