{"id":2154,"date":"2009-03-17T11:09:30","date_gmt":"2009-03-17T10:09:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/?p=2154"},"modified":"2009-03-17T11:09:30","modified_gmt":"2009-03-17T10:09:30","slug":"lasst-sich-das-erfolgsrezept-des-irakischen-surge-auf-afghanistan-ubertragen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/2009\/03\/17\/lasst-sich-das-erfolgsrezept-des-irakischen-surge-auf-afghanistan-ubertragen_2154","title":{"rendered":"L\u00e4sst sich das Erfolgsrezept des irakischen &#8222;Surge&#8220; auf Afghanistan \u00fcbertragen?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Eine <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cna.org\/documents\/How%20is%20Afghanistan%20Different%20from%20Iraq.pdf\">neue Studie (f\u00fcr das Marine Corps)<\/a> beschreibt, was zu beachten ist, wenn man die Lektionen aus dem Irak auf Afghanistan \u00fcbertragen will. Entscheidend sind Politik und Diplomatie, schreiben die Autoren. Die schlechte Regierungsf\u00fchrung in Afghanistan schafft gro\u00dfe Unzufriedenheit und \u00a0treibt den Aufst\u00e4ndischen Unterst\u00fctzung zu. Beim Reden und Verhandeln mit den Stammesf\u00fchrern sind aber deutliche Unterschiede zwischen Afghanistan und al-Anbar im Irak zu sehen. Eine essentielle Studie. Ausz\u00fcge aus der Konklusion:\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><em>In summary, counterinsurgency in Afghanistan will be different from counterinsurgency in\u00a0Al Anbar. Any \u201csolution\u201d to the Afghan insurgency must address not sectarianism or a civil\u00a0war but government misrule tied to a history of warlordism\u2014strategic factors that define the\u00a0problem. Without reducing the abusive behavior of the government and their warlordclients, it is hard to see how security measures will have a long-lasting effect. Security will not stop mistreatment at the hands of government officials or the continued predatory behavior\u00a0of warlords.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Another strategic factor that cannot be avoided is the large safe haven in Pakistan\u2019s tribal\u00a0areas, where insurgents can readily train, recuperate, and organize; a permanent bastion.\u00a0Given time, US forces may be able to pacify some parts of Afghanistan, perhaps even the\u00a0bulk of the population. Nevertheless, until the policies of the Pakistani military change, the\u00a0insurgents should be able to regenerate in the tribal areas. From there, they will be able to try\u00a0again and again at breaking into pacified areas. Poppy does not help. Funds from its\u00a0production and trade enhance the ability of the insurgents to keep going. In the end, their\u00a0attempts may go nowhere but they will have the wherewithal to go round after round,\u00a0fighting season after fighting season.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Other differences between Al Anbar and Afghanistan may not be strategic but will affect\u00a0operations, most notably tribal engagement efforts. Tribal engagement, to include the\u00a0development of tribal forces, will need to be built around the fragmented nature of the tribal\u00a0system, the feuding of Pashtunwali, and the opportunism of warlords. Patience and\u00a0forethought in the planning and execution of tribal engagement efforts are advised. Smallscale\u00a0community successes are more likely than large-scale province-wide successes. Gaining\u00a0the support of as many tribal elders as possible and using the shura system are likely to be\u00a0necessary steps in any effort. Locally recruited forces\u2014whether police or some kind of\u00a0neighborhood watch\u2014will only be as strong as the shura behind them.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Finally, the differences between Al Anbar and Afghanistan will affect tactics. A rural\u00a0environment, the tactical skill of the insurgency, and Pashtunwali compel a re-thinking of the\u00a0tactics of counterinsurgency. How Marines and Soldiers outpost, patrol, re-supply, collect\u00a0bottom-up intelligence, and many other tactics\u2014not to mention logistics\u2014will have to\u00a0adjust to a rural environment where the population is spread out over wide distances and to\u00a0an insurgency skilled at small-unit tactics. The usefulness of certain other tactics deserves\u00a0reconsideration, most notably cordon and searches, air strikes, and population control\u00a0measures. Because of Pashtunwali, their costs may be greater than their benefits.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>In spite of all these differences, Al Anbar and Afghanistan have some similarities. In addition\u00a0to government misrule, Afghan insurgents also fight because of the presence of US (and\u00a0allied) forces\u2014infidels\u2014in their country and, in some cases, because they want to see the\u00a0establishment of an Islamic government.<\/em><span><em>24 <\/em><\/span><em>The same could be said of insurgents in Al Anbar.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Accordingly, the emphasis that was placed on giving Iraqis a lead role in counterinsurgency\u00a0operations in Al Anbar will need to be replicated for Afghans in Afghanistan (even if we\u00a0must at the same time try to empower the right leaders and guide them toward good\u00a0governance). To give other examples, tribes are important political players in both regions,underlining the wisdom of tribal engagement of some kind; while advising indigenous forces\u00a0and clear, hold, and build efforts have proven as effective in Afghanistan as Al Anbar,\u00a0though the tactical details of implementation differ. These similarities make clear that some\u00a0fundamentals of counterinsurgency remain the same even though strategy as a whole may\u00a0need to be re-shaped around the unique characteristics of Afghanistan.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Eine neue Studie (f\u00fcr das Marine Corps) beschreibt, was zu beachten ist, wenn man die Lektionen aus dem Irak auf Afghanistan \u00fcbertragen will. Entscheidend sind Politik und Diplomatie, schreiben die Autoren. Die schlechte Regierungsf\u00fchrung in Afghanistan schafft gro\u00dfe Unzufriedenheit und \u00a0treibt den Aufst\u00e4ndischen Unterst\u00fctzung zu. Beim Reden und Verhandeln mit den Stammesf\u00fchrern sind aber deutliche [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":54,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[151,152,165],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2154","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-afghanistan","category-aussenpolitik","category-irak"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>L\u00e4sst sich das Erfolgsrezept des irakischen &quot;Surge&quot; auf Afghanistan \u00fcbertragen? - J\u00f6rg Lau<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/2009\/03\/17\/lasst-sich-das-erfolgsrezept-des-irakischen-surge-auf-afghanistan-ubertragen_2154\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"de_DE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"L\u00e4sst sich das Erfolgsrezept des irakischen &quot;Surge&quot; auf Afghanistan \u00fcbertragen? - J\u00f6rg Lau\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Eine neue Studie (f\u00fcr das Marine Corps) beschreibt, was zu beachten ist, wenn man die Lektionen aus dem Irak auf Afghanistan \u00fcbertragen will. 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