{"id":2204,"date":"2009-03-27T14:50:07","date_gmt":"2009-03-27T13:50:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/?p=2204"},"modified":"2009-03-27T14:50:07","modified_gmt":"2009-03-27T13:50:07","slug":"wie-iran-mit-obama-schlitten-fahrt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/2009\/03\/27\/wie-iran-mit-obama-schlitten-fahrt_2204","title":{"rendered":"Wie Iran mit Obama Schlitten f\u00e4hrt"},"content":{"rendered":"

Amir Taheri sieht (in der saudischen Zeitung Asharq Alawsat) Obama bereits in der Honigfalle des Revolutionsf\u00fchrers:<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

„Obama\u2019s message represents a return to President Jimmy Carter\u2019s Iran policy. Carter, too, was prepared to flatter, cajole, and beg to win a smile from the mullahs.<\/p>\n

Some analysts see Obama\u2019s message as an indication of Vice President Joseph Biden\u2019s influence in shaping the administration\u2019s Iran policy. A supporter of dialogue with Tehran for years, Biden seems to have sidelined Secretary of State Hillary Clinton who has always espoused a tougher policy toward the mullahs.<\/p>\n

But what are we to make of Tehran\u2019s response?<\/p>\n

Some analysts claim that the Islamic Republic has already rejected Obama\u2019s overture \u2013 end of story. Others, anxious to promote Obama as a political wizard, insist that he has already scored a hit by forcing Tehran to acknowledge that the ball is now in its court.<\/p>\n

A closer look at Tehran\u2019s reaction may reveal a more complicated pirouette.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Amir Taheri<\/em><\/p>\n

To start with, it is important that Tehran has publicly responded to the message at the highest levels, including the \u201cSupreme Guide\u201d Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.<\/p>\n

In previous years, the regime either ignored the American president\u2019s Nowruz message or commented on it through the state-owned media. This time, however, the \u201cleadership\u201d, directly addressed by Obama, has come out with a direct response.<\/p>\n

The carefully prepared Khomeinist response uses a number of rhetorical techniques the mullahs have developed over centuries.<\/p>\n

The first is \u201cbadal-zani\u201d or inversion.<\/p>\n

This means using an adversary\u2019s arguments against him. In his message, Obama had invited the mullahs to change their behaviour on certain issues. In his response, Khamenei says: if you change, we will also change!<\/p>\n

The second technique is \u201cdoon-pashi\u201d or \u201cspreading grains to attract the birds\u201d. The idea is to tantalize the birds with the promise of more feed while leading them into a cage. Khamenei did that by mentioning a number of issues of interest to Obama, a signal that he might be ready to discuss them as the first step toward a broader dialogue.<\/p>\n

The third technique is \u201clapushooni\u201d which could be translated as \u201chiding the essential while highlighting the irrelevant.\u201d Khamenei used this technique by talking of \u201cinsults\u201d and ignoring his regime\u2019s stated aim of driving the Americans out of the Middle East as a prelude to global conquest in the name of the Khomeinist version of Islam.<\/p>\n

It is clear that Khamenei wishes to encourage Obama\u2019s illusions that dialogue could produce positive results.<\/p>\n

One might ask why was it that the \u201cSupreme Guide\u201d rejected similar offers from both Presidents Bill Clinton and George W Bush?<\/p>\n

The Clinton offer of a \u201cGrand Bargain\u201d under which the US would recognize the Islamic Republic as the regional superpower was made in 2000, and rejected for two reasons.<\/p>\n

The first was that the Clinton administration was in its lame-duck stage, and the \u201cSupreme Guide\u201d was not sure it could deliver on its promises.<\/p>\n

The second reason was that, Tehran had scored major diplomatic successes in Europe, no longer felt isolated, and enjoyed relative economic health thanks to steady oil prices.<\/p>\n

In 2006, it was the turn of the Bush administration to have the door shut in its face by Tehran.<\/p>\n

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice\u2019s invitation to dialogue was rejected because Tehran felt that the US had \u201clost in Iraq\u201d and would soon retreat from the Middle East in humiliation.<\/p>\n

More importantly, perhaps, Khamenei distrusted and feared Bush. The mullahs believed that Bush, in his heart, was committed to regime change in Iran.<\/p>\n

Thus prospects for a \u201cdialogue\u201d with the United States appear better under the Obama administration than under Clinton\u2019s or Bush\u2019s.<\/p>\n

One reason is the presence of Joe Biden, regarded by Tehran as \u201ca valued friend\u201d. However, the main reason is Tehran\u2019s perception of Obama as an inexperienced and naive politician who could be taken for a ride without much risk, a reincarnation of the hapless Carter.<\/p>\n

Tehran knows that Obama desperately wants to be different from Bush and would be prepared to go far to de-Bushisize American policy.<\/p>\n

The idea is to use Obama\u2019s naivet\u00e9 to buy the Islamic Republic another four years of insurance against its adversaries.<\/p>\n

Khamenei\u2019s \u201cyes-but\u201d answer gives Obama something to chew upon for a few months. Obama will then be invited to wait for Iran\u2019s presidential election and the formation of a new administration in Tehran. Khamenei may even ask Ahmadinejad not to stand again, citing \u201chealth problems\u201d.<\/p>\n

That would enable Khamenei to engineer a victory for Mir-Hussein Mussavi Khamenehi, a fellow Azerbaijani from the same village.<\/p>\n

Mussavi-Khamenehi has a long history of contacts with the US and is already praised in Washington as a promising \u201cnew-old face\u201d.<\/p>\n

Obama-idolators would hail Mussavi-Khamenehi\u2019s victory in the June presidential election as a great success for their \u201cwizard\u201d. Ahmadinejad, the genuine anti-American and Holocaust-denier, will be gone, replaced by a politician with secret contacts with Washington since 1985, (the trouble with Ahmadinejad is that he really means what he says).<\/p>\n

These developments would fill what is left of Obama\u2019s term. During that period, Tehran will have its bomb, will spread its influence in Iraq and Afghanistan, will strengthen its hold on Lebanon and Syria, and will go onto the offensive in the Gulf and Pakistan.“<\/p>\n

Alles hier<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Notabene: Allerdings ist Taheri kein sehr verl\u00e4sslicher Analytiker<\/a>. Er hat sich sehr stark mit den Neocon-Projekt eines neuen Nahen Ostens gemein gemacht.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Amir Taheri sieht (in der saudischen Zeitung Asharq Alawsat) Obama bereits in der Honigfalle des Revolutionsf\u00fchrers: \u00a0 „Obama\u2019s message represents a return to President Jimmy Carter\u2019s Iran policy. Carter, too, was prepared to flatter, cajole, and beg to win a smile from the mullahs. Some analysts see Obama\u2019s message as an indication of Vice President […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":54,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[152,166,125],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2204","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-aussenpolitik","category-iran","category-usa"],"yoast_head":"\nWie Iran mit Obama Schlitten f\u00e4hrt - J\u00f6rg Lau<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/2009\/03\/27\/wie-iran-mit-obama-schlitten-fahrt_2204\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"de_DE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Wie Iran mit Obama Schlitten f\u00e4hrt - J\u00f6rg Lau\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Amir Taheri sieht (in der saudischen Zeitung Asharq Alawsat) Obama bereits in der Honigfalle des Revolutionsf\u00fchrers: \u00a0 „Obama\u2019s message represents a return to President Jimmy Carter\u2019s Iran policy. 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