{"id":2629,"date":"2009-06-17T15:23:39","date_gmt":"2009-06-17T13:23:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/?p=2629"},"modified":"2009-06-17T15:23:39","modified_gmt":"2009-06-17T13:23:39","slug":"die-wahren-hintergrunde-des-coups-im-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/2009\/06\/17\/die-wahren-hintergrunde-des-coups-im-iran_2629","title":{"rendered":"Die wahren Hintergr\u00fcnde des Coups im Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Muhammad Sahimi schreibt auf <a href=\"http:\/\/tehranbureau.com\/2009\/06\/16\/the-leaders-of-iran%E2%80%99s-election-coup\/\">Tehranbureau<\/a> eine gr\u00fcndliche Analyse der Hintergr\u00fcnde des Coups. Er h\u00e4lt die Sache f\u00fcr lange vorbereitet und sieht Anzeichen daf\u00fcr, dass es in Wahrheit l\u00e4ngst um die Nachfolge Ayatollah Chameneis als Religi\u00f6ser F\u00fchrer geht. Die Generation der Mittf\u00fcnfziger, die jungen Revolution\u00e4re um Ahmadinedschad und die Revolutionsgarden wollen das (teils reformerische, teils pragmatische) Establishment ausschalten, um einer Milit\u00e4rdiktatur unter geistiger F\u00fchrerschaft des apokalyptisch-messianischen Ayatollahs Mesbah-Yazdi den Weg zu bahnen &#8211; so die These:<\/p>\n<p><em>In the last week of the campaign, signals started emanating from the high command of the IRGC that it was not happy with developments. General Javani warned on June 8 in Sobh-e Saadegh (True Dawn), the weekly published for the armed forces, that the high command of the IRGC considers the campaign of Messrs Mousavi and Karroubi tantamount to preparing for a \u201cvelvet revolution.\u201d He warned that the IRGC \u201cwill kill it [the velvet revolution] at its inception.\u201d Kayhan, the newspaper that acts as a public mouthpiece for the IRGC\/security forces, also warned of a colored revolution. This was a clear signal something was being planned behind the scenes to prevent a victory by a reformist candidate. The leaders and ideologues behind the election coup were none other than second-generation revolutionaries, mostly from the IRGC, whose spiritual leader is Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi.<\/p>\n<p>The goals behind the coup include the following:<\/p>\n<p>The first goal is to purge first-generation revolutionary leaders (with the exception of Ayatollah Khamenei). The main target here is former president Rafsanjani, a powerful politician who heads two important Constitutional bodies, the Assembly of Experts (AE), and the Expediency Council that arbitrates the differences between the Majles (parliament) and the Guardian Council. Also included in this group are Mr. Ali Akbar Nategh Nouri, a mid-ranking cleric, former Speaker of the Majles, and a strong critic of Mr. Ahmadinejad; Mr. Mahdi Karroubi, the second reformist candidate in the election and a disciple of Ayatollah Khomeini; and Mr. Mir Hossein Mousavi, the main reformist candidate, and Iran\u2019s Prime Minister in the 1980s.<\/p>\n<p>Why do they want them out of the scene? For two reasons. One is that the coup leaders consider themselves \u2014 and rightly so \u2014 as the saviors of Iran. They are the ones who fought Iraq for eight years. Secondly, at least part of the IRGC high command wishes Iran to be in a perpetual revolutionary state, but believes that the first-generation of revolutionaries have sold out the ideals of the 1979 Revolution.<\/p>\n<p>In his \u201cvictory\u201d speech on Sunday, Mr. Ahmadinejad never once mentioned Ayatollah Khomeini, the Islamic Republic, or even Ayatollah Khamenei, his main supporter. The significance of the intentional omissions should not be missed. Just as Joseph Stalin and Deng Xiaoping kept Vladimir Lenin\u2019s and Mao Zedong\u2019s pictures everywhere, they always acted in the opposite way of what they appeared to be advocating; Iran\u2019s second-generation revolutionaries will keep Ayatollah Khomeini\u2019s pictures everywhere, but will act against his teachings, including his most famous saying,<\/p>\n<p>The scale [for people\u2019s acceptance of a politician] is people\u2019s vote.<\/p>\n<p>The second goal of second-generation revolutionaries is moving the country closer to an \u201cIslamic Government,\u201d and further away from an \u201cIslamic Republic.\u201d This is done by making elections a meaningless process by resortign to any means available, including rigging and manipulation. This move has marginalized reformist and democratic groups in Iran.<\/p>\n<p>The third goal is to start preparations for the eventual successor to Ayatollah Khamenei. He is known to be ill. By accusing Mr. Rafsanjani of corruption, the second-generation revolutionaries wish to eliminate him \u2014 the head of the Assembly of Experts appoints the Supreme Leader \u2014 as the natural successor of Ayatollah Khamenei, hence paving the way for Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi who is a member of the AE. Everything appeared to have been planned well in advance, but the coup leaders did not expect the people to stand up to them.<\/p>\n<p>This is a pivotal moment in Iran\u2019s history. If the reformists and the Iranian people cannot reverse the outcome of Iran\u2019s rigged elections, Iran will enter a dark period of dictatorship, with no light at the end of the tunnel. The country will be controlled completely by the military\/security forces, with an unelected Supreme Leader as its titular head, and no elections (or extremely meaningless ones). This would be a terrible development for the rest of the world as well.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Muhammad Sahimi schreibt auf Tehranbureau eine gr\u00fcndliche Analyse der Hintergr\u00fcnde des Coups. Er h\u00e4lt die Sache f\u00fcr lange vorbereitet und sieht Anzeichen daf\u00fcr, dass es in Wahrheit l\u00e4ngst um die Nachfolge Ayatollah Chameneis als Religi\u00f6ser F\u00fchrer geht. Die Generation der Mittf\u00fcnfziger, die jungen Revolution\u00e4re um Ahmadinedschad und die Revolutionsgarden wollen das (teils reformerische, teils pragmatische) [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":54,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[166],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2629","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-iran"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Die wahren Hintergr\u00fcnde des Coups im Iran - J\u00f6rg Lau<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/2009\/06\/17\/die-wahren-hintergrunde-des-coups-im-iran_2629\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"de_DE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Die wahren Hintergr\u00fcnde des Coups im Iran - J\u00f6rg Lau\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Muhammad Sahimi schreibt auf Tehranbureau eine gr\u00fcndliche Analyse der Hintergr\u00fcnde des Coups. Er h\u00e4lt die Sache f\u00fcr lange vorbereitet und sieht Anzeichen daf\u00fcr, dass es in Wahrheit l\u00e4ngst um die Nachfolge Ayatollah Chameneis als Religi\u00f6ser F\u00fchrer geht. 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