{"id":2722,"date":"2009-07-03T13:48:45","date_gmt":"2009-07-03T11:48:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/?p=2722"},"modified":"2009-07-03T13:48:45","modified_gmt":"2009-07-03T11:48:45","slug":"eine-super-gelegenheit-iran-zu-bombardieren","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/2009\/07\/03\/eine-super-gelegenheit-iran-zu-bombardieren_2722","title":{"rendered":"Eine super Gelegenheit, Iran zu bombardieren"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hat John R. Bolton entdeckt<\/a>, ehemals eine hohe Figur im republikanischen Siherheitsestablishment und schlie\u00dflich UN-Botschafter George W. Bushs.<\/p>\n

Seit Jahren ist Bolton – ein Erz-Falke – unterwegs, um f\u00fcr einen Krieg gegen Iran zu werben, wie ich pers\u00f6nlich bezeugen<\/a> kann.<\/p>\n

Anders als manche Kommentatoren, die das neue Gesicht Irans – durch die lebendige Zivilgesellschaft, die dem Wahlbetrug tapfer entgegenhielt – f\u00fcr einen Grund halten, eine milit\u00e4rische Option auszuschliessen, will Bolton jetzt erst recht Bomben fallen sehen.<\/p>\n

Und zwar sollen die Israelis es machen (da auf Obama offenbar nicht zu setzen ist):<\/em><\/p>\n

Time is too short, and sanctions failed long ago.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n

Only those most theologically committed to negotiation still believe Iran will fully renounce its nuclear program. Unfortunately, the Obama administration has a „Plan B,“ which would allow Iran to have a „peaceful“ civil nuclear power program while publicly „renouncing“ the objective of nuclear weapons. Obama would define such an outcome as „success,“ even though in reality it would hardly be different from what Iran is doing and saying now. A „peaceful“ uranium enrichment program, „peaceful“ reactors such as Bushehr and „peaceful“ heavy-water projects like that under construction at Arak leave Iran with an enormous breakout capability to produce nuclear weapons in very short order. And anyone who believes the Revolutionary Guard Corps will abandon its weaponization and ballistic missile programs probably believes that there was no fraud in Iran’s June 12 election. See „huge credibility gap,“ supra. <\/em><\/em><\/p>\n

In short, the stolen election and its tumultuous aftermath have dramatically highlighted the strategic and tactical flaws in Obama’s game plan. With regime change off the table for the coming critical period in Iran’s nuclear program, Israel’s decision on using force is both easier and more urgent. Since there is no likelihood that diplomacy will start or finish in time, or even progress far enough to make any real difference, there is no point waiting for negotiations to play out. In fact, given the near certainty of Obama changing his definition of „success,“ negotiations represent an even more dangerous trap for Israel. <\/em><\/em><\/p>\n

Bolton hat schon zwei Kriege bekommen in seiner aktiven Laufbahn unter George W.<\/p>\n

Aber genug ist nicht genug.<\/p>\n

Warum glaubt Bolton, jetzt k\u00f6nne man dem iranischen Volk besser klarmachen, dass ein Schlag gegen das Atomprogramm nicht gegen die Bev\u00f6lkerung, sondern gegen das Regime gerichtet sei?<\/p>\n

Significantly, the uprising in Iran also makes it more likely that an effective public diplomacy campaign could be waged in the country to explain to Iranians that such an attack is directed against the regime, not against the Iranian people. This was always true, but it has become even more important to make this case emphatically, when the gulf between the Islamic revolution of 1979 and the citizens of Iran has never been clearer or wider.<\/em><\/p>\n

Das ist eine absurde Fehleinsch\u00e4tzung der Folgen eines Milit\u00e4rschlages: Der Graben zwischen Regime und Volk w\u00fcrde sich sofort wieder schliessen, wenn ein Angriff stattf\u00e4nde. Denn selbst die Kritiker des Regimes unterst\u00fctzen den urspr\u00fcnglichen Impuls der Revolution: Unabh\u00e4ngigkeit und Souver\u00e4nit\u00e4t des iranischen Volkes. Auch die Gegner des Atomprogramms sind gegen einen Krieg um seinetwillen.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hat John R. Bolton entdeckt, ehemals eine hohe Figur im republikanischen Siherheitsestablishment und schlie\u00dflich UN-Botschafter George W. Bushs. Seit Jahren ist Bolton – ein Erz-Falke – unterwegs, um f\u00fcr einen Krieg gegen Iran zu werben, wie ich pers\u00f6nlich bezeugen kann. Anders als manche Kommentatoren, die das neue Gesicht Irans – durch die lebendige Zivilgesellschaft, die […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":54,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[152,166,125],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2722","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-aussenpolitik","category-iran","category-usa"],"yoast_head":"\nEine super Gelegenheit, Iran zu bombardieren - J\u00f6rg Lau<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/2009\/07\/03\/eine-super-gelegenheit-iran-zu-bombardieren_2722\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"de_DE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Eine super Gelegenheit, Iran zu bombardieren - J\u00f6rg Lau\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Hat John R. Bolton entdeckt, ehemals eine hohe Figur im republikanischen Siherheitsestablishment und schlie\u00dflich UN-Botschafter George W. Bushs. Seit Jahren ist Bolton – ein Erz-Falke – unterwegs, um f\u00fcr einen Krieg gegen Iran zu werben, wie ich pers\u00f6nlich bezeugen kann. 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