{"id":4595,"date":"2011-02-11T11:18:58","date_gmt":"2011-02-11T10:18:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/?p=4595"},"modified":"2011-02-11T11:18:58","modified_gmt":"2011-02-11T10:18:58","slug":"mubaraks-endspiel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/2011\/02\/11\/mubaraks-endspiel_4595","title":{"rendered":"Mubaraks Endspiel"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.sandmonkey.org\/2011\/02\/11\/mubaraks-gamble\/\">Sandmonkey<\/a> deutet die Ereignisse von gestern Abend:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>1) Mubarak is not going to leave office without bloodshed. Any  attempt for a peaceful exit has been discarded by his regime, and they  are\u00a0intending\u00a0to fight the will of the people until the end.<\/p>\n<p>2) Mubarak has burned the image of Hossam Badrawy and the Wisemen Council with his speech. Hossam Badrawy, the secretary general of the  NDP, was the face of the NDP that announced Mubarak&#8217;s intenetion to  abdicate power later tonight. Now the man has no credibility. Same goes  for the Wiseman Council, since Mubarak&#8217;s speech was focused on how he  has met their demands, which don&#8217;t include him leaving. If most of them  don&#8217;t quit their posts today, I would be greatly surprised.<\/p>\n<p>3) We are seeing the first possible split in the power structure in  Egypt: It seems that the Armed Forces are in one camp, and the  president, intelligence agencies and the republican guard in another  camp. If you add to the equation the Ministery of Interior and the  protesters, you have 4 players right now in an intensely unpredictable  power struggle. We are now awaiting the second statement from the High  council of amred forces to clearify their position once and for all.  Whether the army is with or against the people will determine a lot of  today&#8217;s outcome.<\/p>\n<p>4) Mubarak has now put the US in a corner: He double-crossed the  White House, and announced his intentions to fight foreign intervention.  Adding to that the news of the arab aid, he is sending the US a clear  message: &#8222;I could tell you and your aid to go to hell, and get the money  from the arabs instead. Where does this leave your precious Israel? If  you don&#8217;t want us to cause problems on that front, \u00a0you better shut up  about what we will do and get with the program, or else!&#8220;<\/p>\n<p>If you take all of those factors into consideration, the situation  starts looking intensely ominous. If the regime and the army has split,  we could see major fighting and bloodshed today. If the Army is with the  President, then they will all turn their guns on the Protesters, who  are determined not to live under Mubarak rule for one extra day. It also  means that he put on the line the future of the transitional government  with Omar Suleiman in charge, because Suleiman&#8217;s fate seems intensely  intertwined with the President now. This has become a fight for  survival: it&#8217;s either the regime or the people. The bad news is, the  regime has all the weapon and organization. The good news is, the people  are determined and increasing in numbers and the army might step in and  save us all unnecessary bloodshed.<\/p>\n<p>It all depends on the army&#8217;s statement now.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Das Statement ist nun da. 10 Minuten vor den Freitagsgebeten hat ein Sprecher der Armee verk\u00fcndet, man werde freie und faire Wahlen unterst\u00fctzen (ohne ein Datum zu nennen). Und die Armee stellt sich auch hinter die \u00dcbertragung der Macht auf Suleiman. Die Aufhebung des Notstands wird den Protestierenden unter Bedingungen in Aussicht gestellt. Ob das reicht, um ein m\u00f6gliches Blutbad nach Protesten zu verhindern?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sandmonkey deutet die Ereignisse von gestern Abend: 1) Mubarak is not going to leave office without bloodshed. Any attempt for a peaceful exit has been discarded by his regime, and they are\u00a0intending\u00a0to fight the will of the people until the end. 2) Mubarak has burned the image of Hossam Badrawy and the Wisemen Council with [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":54,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9460,152],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4595","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-agypten","category-aussenpolitik"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Mubaraks Endspiel - J\u00f6rg Lau<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/2011\/02\/11\/mubaraks-endspiel_4595\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"de_DE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Mubaraks Endspiel - J\u00f6rg Lau\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Sandmonkey deutet die Ereignisse von gestern Abend: 1) Mubarak is not going to leave office without bloodshed. 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