{"id":4682,"date":"2011-02-28T11:27:53","date_gmt":"2011-02-28T10:27:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/?p=4682"},"modified":"2011-02-28T11:28:58","modified_gmt":"2011-02-28T10:28:58","slug":"revolution-in-arabien-schlecht-fur-al-kaida-hart-fur-europa-gut-fur-die-turkei","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/2011\/02\/28\/revolution-in-arabien-schlecht-fur-al-kaida-hart-fur-europa-gut-fur-die-turkei_4682","title":{"rendered":"Revolution in Arabien: Schlecht f\u00fcr Al-Kaida? Hart f\u00fcr Europa? Gut f\u00fcr die T\u00fcrkei?"},"content":{"rendered":"

In einem Kommentar im DLF hatte ich letztes Wochenende versucht zu zeigen, dass Al-Kaida bisher – bisher!- vor einem Desaster steht angesichts der Umst\u00fcrze in der arabischen Welt. Nun geht die New York Times<\/a> dem gleichen Thema nach und kommt zu einem gemischten, wenn auch leicht optimistisch eingef\u00e4rbten Bild. Hier meine Einsch\u00e4tzung (alles lesen und h\u00f6ren – hier<\/a>):<\/p>\n

Die Autokratien des Nahen Ostens wanken – und ihr gr\u00f6\u00dfter Feind schweigt. Osama bin Laden m\u00fcsste eigentlich jubeln, wenn die Herrscherh\u00e4user zittern, die er st\u00fcrzen will, um das Kalifat wieder zu errichten. Doch El-Kaida bleibt stumm, w\u00e4hrend eine Welle demokratischer Proteste – nach Tunesien und \u00c4gypten – nun sogar Staaten wie Bahrain und Libyen erfasst. F\u00fcr das Terrornetz w\u00e4re es ein Desaster, wenn die Protestbewegung zeigen k\u00f6nnte, dass Araber auf friedliche Weise von der Diktatur zur Demokratie \u00fcbergehen k\u00f6nnen. Diese neue Generation ist gewaltlos, sie ist nicht antiwestlich, und sie ist nicht islamistisch. Statt mit Selbstmordattentaten begann ihr Aufstand mit Selbstverbrennungen. Und alle Gewalt geht bisher von den Unterdr\u00fcckern aus. Die Bewegung ist nicht antireligi\u00f6s, aber sie will auch keinen Gottesstaat. Kann sein, dass die Ereignisse der letzten Wochen uns mehr vorangebracht haben als zehn Jahre Krieg gegen den Terrorismus.<\/p>\n

Auch wir im Westen schauen immer noch ungl\u00e4ubig auf diesen post-islamistischen Aufstand: Kann es wirklich sein, dass Muslime gewaltfrei f\u00fcr eine gerechtere Gesellschaft mit mehr demokratischer Teilhabe auf die Stra\u00dfen gehen? Vielleicht haben wir uns innenpolitisch so sehr an den Muslim als Problemb\u00e4ren der Nation gew\u00f6hnt, dass wir f\u00fcr den gr\u00f6\u00dften au\u00dfenpolitischen Bruch seit Jahrzehnten keinen Blick mehr haben? Die demokratische Welle in der arabischen Welt ist ein Anlass, den Blick zu drehen: Was die mutigen jungen Leute in Tunis, Benghazi, Kairo und Bahrain tun, muss auch unsere Debatte zuhause \u00fcber den Islam und die Moderne ver\u00e4ndern. Ganze Bibliotheken drohen obsolet zu werden, in denen aus Religion und Tradition erkl\u00e4rt wurde, warum der muslimische Nahe Osten Freiheit und Demokratie einfach nicht kann. Gewonnen haben die jungen Revolution\u00e4re noch nicht. Zwei Herrscher sind gest\u00fcrzt. Aber niemand kann heute garantieren, dass sie nicht durch andere ihres Schlages ersetzt werden. Auch Chaos und B\u00fcrgerkrieg sind nicht ausgeschlossen. Extremisten k\u00f6nnten davon profitieren. Da ist es verst\u00e4ndlich, dass wir im Westen angstvoll auf m\u00f6gliche Fl\u00fcchtlingswellen starren, auf die Muslimbr\u00fcder und auf den gef\u00e4hrdeten Friedensprozess zwischen Pal\u00e4stinensern und Israelis…<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Scott Shane meint:<\/p>\n

So for Al Qaeda \u2014 and perhaps no less for the American policies that have been built around the threat it poses \u2014 the democratic revolutions that have gripped the world\u2019s attention present a crossroads. Will the terrorist network shrivel slowly to irrelevance? Or will it find a way to exploit the chaos produced by political upheaval and the disappointment that will inevitably follow hopes now raised so high?<\/p>\n

For many specialists on terrorism and the Middle East, though not all, the past few weeks have the makings of an epochal disaster for Al Qaeda, making the jihadists look like ineffectual bystanders to history while offering young Muslims an appealing alternative to terrorism.<\/p>\n

\u201cSo far \u2014 and I emphasize so far \u2014 the score card looks pretty terrible for Al Qaeda,\u201d said Paul R. Pillar<\/a>, who studied terrorism and the Middle East for nearly three decades at the C.I.A.<\/a> and is now at Georgetown University<\/a>. \u201cDemocracy is bad news for terrorists. The more peaceful channels people have to express grievances and pursue their goals, the less likely they are to turn to violence.\u201d<\/p>\n

If the terrorists network\u2019s leaders hope to seize the moment, they have been slow off the mark. Mr. bin Laden has been silent. His Egyptian deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri<\/a>, has issued three rambling statements from his presumed hide-out in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border region that seemed oddly out of sync with the news, not noting the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak<\/a> of Egypt, whose government detained and tortured Mr. Zawahri in the 1980s.<\/p>\n

\u201cKnocking off Mubarak has been Zawahri\u2019s goal for more than 20 years, and he was unable to achieve it,\u201d said Brian Fishman<\/a>, a terrorism expert at the New America Foundation. \u201cNow a nonviolent, nonreligious, pro-democracy movement got rid of him in a matter of weeks. It\u2019s a major problem for Al Qaeda.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Robert D. Kaplan glaubt in der Washington Post<\/a>, dass die Umw\u00e4lzungen der arabischen Welt f\u00fcr Europa viel gr\u00f6\u00dfere Auswirkungen haben werden als f\u00fcr Amerika. Und dass die T\u00fcrkei einer der gro\u00dfen Gewinner sein k\u00f6nnte:<\/p>\n

The uprisings in the Middle East will have a more profound effect on Europe than on the United States. Just as Europe moved eastward to encompass the former satellite states of the Soviet Union after 1989, Europe will now expand to the south. For decades North Africa was effectively cut off from the northern rim of the Mediterranean because of autocratic regimes that stifled economic and social development while also facilitating extremist politics. North Africa gave Europe economic migrants but little else. But as its states evolve into hybrid regimes, the degree of political and economic interactions with nearby Europe will multiply. Some of those Arab migrants may return home as opportunities are created by reformist policies. The Mediterranean will become a connector, rather than the divider it has been during most of the post-colonial era.<\/p>\n

Of course, Tunisia and Egypt are not about to join the European Union. But they will become shadow zones of deepening E.U. involvement. The European Union itself will become an even more ambitious and unwieldy project.<\/p>\n

The true beneficiary of these uprisings in a historical and geographical sense is Turkey. Ottoman Turkey ruled North Africa and the Levant for hundreds of years in the modern era. While this rule was despotic, it was not so oppressive as to leave a lasting scar on today’s Arabs. Turkey is an exemplar of Islamic democracy that can serve as a role model for these newly liberated states, especially as its democracy evolved from a hybrid regime – with generals and politicians sharing power until recently. With 75 million people and a 10 percent economic growth rate, Turkey is also a demographic and economic juggernaut that can project soft power throughout the Mediterranean.<\/p>\n

The Middle East’s march away from authoritarianism will ironically inhibit the projection of American power. Because of the complexity of hybrid regimes, American influence in each capital will be limited; Turkey is more likely to be the avatar toward which newly liberated Arabs look. America’s influence is likely to be maintained less by the emergence of democracy than by continued military assistance to many Arab states and by the divisions that will continue to plague the region, especially the threat of a nuclearized, Shiite Iran.<\/p>\n

Mitigating the loss of American power will be the geopolitical weakening of the Arab world itself. As Arab societies turn inward to rectify long-ignored social and economic grievances and their leaders in hybrid systems battle each other to consolidate power domestically, they will have less energy for foreign policy concerns.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Letzteres k\u00f6nnte man, glaube ich, eher begr\u00fc\u00dfen.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In einem Kommentar im DLF hatte ich letztes Wochenende versucht zu zeigen, dass Al-Kaida bisher – bisher!- vor einem Desaster steht angesichts der Umst\u00fcrze in der arabischen Welt. Nun geht die New York Times dem gleichen Thema nach und kommt zu einem gemischten, wenn auch leicht optimistisch eingef\u00e4rbten Bild. Hier meine Einsch\u00e4tzung (alles lesen und […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":54,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[152],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4682","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-aussenpolitik"],"yoast_head":"\nRevolution in Arabien: Schlecht f\u00fcr Al-Kaida? Hart f\u00fcr Europa? 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