{"id":5487,"date":"2012-02-27T14:41:50","date_gmt":"2012-02-27T13:41:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/?p=5487"},"modified":"2012-02-27T14:43:43","modified_gmt":"2012-02-27T13:43:43","slug":"israel-wird-iran-angreifen-quatsch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/2012\/02\/27\/israel-wird-iran-angreifen-quatsch_5487","title":{"rendered":"Israel wird Iran angreifen? Quatsch."},"content":{"rendered":"

Meint jedenfalls Barry Rubin in der Jerusalem Post<\/a>:<\/p>\n

… the war hysteria with Iran. Iran doesn\u2019t have deliverable nuclear weapons. It is not about to have deliverable nuclear weapons. Israel is not about to attack Iran. The United States is certainly not about to attack Iran. The whole idea that the leaders of Iran are crazed, suicidally minded people who expect the twelfth imam to arrive next Thursday is simply not true.<\/p>\n

\n

Yes, the Iranian regime is radical and yes, it throws threats in all\u00a0directions and yes, it is the world\u2019s biggest sponsor of terrorism. Yet after 32 years in power the Islamist regime\u00a0in Tehran has yet to do something really adventurous abroad. This regime wants to stay in power and it has shown restraint. When it committed terrorist attacks against Americans in Lebanon, Iraq and Saudi Arabia it did so with the correct calculation that it could get away without paying any price.<\/p>\n

(…) Iran\u2019s government is bad enough, but the caricatures we are seeing go far beyond the reality. The country\u2019s main goal, like that of Pakistan, is to make itself immune to any reprisals for terrorism and subversion by having nuclear weapons. In part, the rationale for the nuclear program is outdated, though that certainly won\u2019t stop Tehran from pursuing it. The\u00a0project\u00a0was launched to make Iran into the leader of the Middle East, and even of the whole Muslim world.<\/p>\n

Yet the rise of Sunni Arab Islamists, notably the Muslim Brotherhood, has sharply reduced Iran\u2019s potential sphere of influence. Tehran\u2019s broader ambitions have been shrunk to include only Lebanon, Syria (where its ally is facing major problems), southwest Afghanistan, and Iraq (where its clients are proportionately small in size). Throw in some ambitions toward Bahrain and the ability to scare the Persian Gulf Arabs and that\u2019s about it. Turkey has its own ambitions; the newly empowered Sunni Arab Islamists hate Iran and don\u2019t think they need Tehran at all.<\/p>\n

That doesn\u2019t mean Iran might not some day attack Israel if and when it has nuclear weapons. Obviously a mixture of containment, defensive measures and the ability plus willingness to stage a preemptive attack if necessary are vital for Israel, which isn\u2019t going to depend on Iran\u2019s good will or assume that Tehran will never attack.<\/p>\n

At the same time, though, the chances of avoiding a nuclear war are overwhelmingly positive. What is Iran going to do, put two to six missiles on launching pads to shoot at Israel without being detected beforehand and having no second wave that can be used? Is Iran going to attack Israel out of spite, from blind fanaticism, knowing not only that Iran will be devastated but that Israel has a high likelihood of preempting and destroying them on the launching pad or shooting them down?<\/p>\n

To start a war with Iran now doesn\u2019t make any sense. It will not stop that country from getting nuclear weapons and it would make a nuclear war in the coming years more rather than less likely. Israel has no international support. Russia is practically threatening a war against Israel if it does launch such an operation.<\/p>\n

The\u00a0logistics\u00a0of an attack are difficult, though not impossible. A lot can go wrong. You don\u2019t want to try such an operation unless you really have to do so. The bottom line is that an Israeli attack on Iran at present is simply not necessary. A lot of the Israeli rhetoric is clearly intended to press the West toward greater activism and tougher sanctions.<\/p>\n

Indeed, all of the reasons why Israel is not about to attack Iran are just plain ignored in the media. Defense Minister Ehud Barak explains that no decision is made and that Israeli policy is only to attack if Iran is about to get deliverable nuclear weapons. He suggests that this won\u2019t happen in the next year. The biggest Israeli critic of launching an attack states that Israel decided not to do so and his worst complaint against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is that he wants to keep discussing the possibility, not that he has decided on an attack.<\/p>\n

President\u00a0Barack Obama \u2013 a man who would never attack Iran or support an Israeli action \u2013 has publicly stated that Israel isn\u2019t about to do so. The\u00a0president\u00a0of the United States, whatever his other faults, would not say such a thing unless he has been clearly promised by Netanyahu that it isn\u2019t going to happen. If Israel were to break that promise the entire bilateral relationship would blow up in a way that would make recent tiffs seem like a picnic.<\/p>\n

In short, the whole idea is nonsense. Numerous reasons can be given to explain why it is not on the agenda for this year. But the media and various analysts \u2013 many of them self-proclaimed experts \u2013 simply ignore all the evidence. Some want to get Israel into a war with Iran to please their own ideological agenda; others want to\u00a0claim\u00a0Israel is going to attack in order to prove their thesis that Israel is the evil cause of all regional \u2013 or even world \u2013 problems.<\/p>\n

This hysteria really should stop. Israel isn\u2019t going to get into a long, bloody and avoidable war because bloggers and op-ed writers are screaming for it. (…)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Meint jedenfalls Barry Rubin in der Jerusalem Post: … the war hysteria with Iran. Iran doesn\u2019t have deliverable nuclear weapons. It is not about to have deliverable nuclear weapons. Israel is not about to attack Iran. The United States is certainly not about to attack Iran. The whole idea that the leaders of Iran are […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":54,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[166,168],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5487","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-iran","category-israel"],"yoast_head":"\nIsrael wird Iran angreifen? 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