{"id":791,"date":"2007-09-27T22:26:28","date_gmt":"2007-09-27T20:26:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/2007\/09\/27\/israelischer-militarexperte-wir-konnen-mit-der-iranischen-bombe-leben_791"},"modified":"2007-09-27T22:26:28","modified_gmt":"2007-09-27T20:26:28","slug":"israelischer-militarexperte-wir-konnen-mit-der-iranischen-bombe-leben","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/2007\/09\/27\/israelischer-militarexperte-wir-konnen-mit-der-iranischen-bombe-leben_791","title":{"rendered":"Israelischer Milit\u00e4rexperte: Wir k\u00f6nnen mit der iranischen Bombe leben"},"content":{"rendered":"

Israels bekanntester Milit\u00e4rhistoriker Martin van Creveld<\/a> empfindet die Aufregung um das iranische Atomprogramm als Hysterie. In einem seiner ber\u00fcchtigten, kalt analysierenden Artikel im j\u00fcdischen „Forward“<\/a> geht er der iranischen St\u00e4rke nach:<\/p>\n

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad looks and sounds as if he is in a panic \u2014 and the Iranian president, on tour in New York this week, has very good reason to be.<\/p>\n

Israel, which Ahmadinejad regards as his country\u2019s great enemy, has just carried out what seems to be a very successful strike against an important Syrian installation. And behind Prime Minister Ehud Olmert stands President Bush \u2014 the same President Bush who four years ago needed no reason at all to take on Iran\u2019s neighbor to the west and demolish it to the point where it may never rise again.<\/p>\n

Both Olmert and Bush have repeatedly signaled their determination to prevent Iran from going nuclear, using force if necessary, and they may very well carry out their threats. Should they do so, then Iran \u2014 so often presented as some kind of regional juggernaut \u2014 will have little to put in their way.<\/p>\n

Though rich in oil, Iran is a third-world country with a population of 80 million and a per capita income of $2,440. By the best available figures, those of the London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies, its annual defense budget stands at about $6.3 billion \u2014 a little more than half of Israel\u2019s and a little less than 2% of America\u2019s.
\n\"Creveld.jpg\"<\/p>\n

Martin van Creveld von der Jerusalemer Hebrew University<\/em><\/p>\n

Iran, in fact, spends a smaller percentage of its resources on defense than any of its neighbors except the United Arab Emirates. And while Iran might very well operate covert programs whose cost would bump up its total defense expenditures, the same can be said of many other countries.<\/p>\n

Should the United States strike at Iran \u2014 and let\u2019s be clear here, we are talking about a strike by cruise missiles and manned aircraft, not about an invasion for which Washington does not have the troops \u2014 then Tehran will have almost no way to hit back.<\/p>\n

….<\/p>\n

In case Bush does decide to attack Iran, it is questionable whether Iran\u2019s large, well-dispersed and well-camouflaged nuclear program can really be knocked out. This is all the more doubtful because, in contrast to the Israeli attacks on Iraq back in 1981 and on Syria three weeks ago, the element of surprise will be lacking. And even if it can be done, whether doing so will serve a useful purpose is also questionable.<\/p>\n

Since 1945 hardly one year has gone by in which some voices \u2014 mainly American ones concerned about preserving Washington\u2019s monopoly over nuclear weapons to the greatest extent possible \u2014 did not decry the terrible consequences that would follow if additional countries went nuclear. So far, not one of those warnings has come true. To the contrary: in every<\/em> place where nuclear weapons were introduced, large-scale wars between their owners have disappeared.<\/p>\n

General John Abizaid, the former commander of United States Central Command, is only the latest in a long list of experts to argue that the world can live with a nuclear Iran. Their views deserve to be carefully considered, lest Ahmadinejad\u2019s fear-driven posturing cause anybody to do something stupid.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Israels bekanntester Milit\u00e4rhistoriker Martin van Creveld empfindet die Aufregung um das iranische Atomprogramm als Hysterie. In einem seiner ber\u00fcchtigten, kalt analysierenden Artikel im j\u00fcdischen „Forward“ geht er der iranischen St\u00e4rke nach: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad looks and sounds as if he is in a panic \u2014 and the Iranian president, on tour in New York this week, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":54,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[152,166,168],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-791","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-aussenpolitik","category-iran","category-israel"],"yoast_head":"\nIsraelischer Milit\u00e4rexperte: Wir k\u00f6nnen mit der iranischen Bombe leben - J\u00f6rg Lau<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/2007\/09\/27\/israelischer-militarexperte-wir-konnen-mit-der-iranischen-bombe-leben_791\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"de_DE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Israelischer Milit\u00e4rexperte: Wir k\u00f6nnen mit der iranischen Bombe leben - J\u00f6rg Lau\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Israels bekanntester Milit\u00e4rhistoriker Martin van Creveld empfindet die Aufregung um das iranische Atomprogramm als Hysterie. In einem seiner ber\u00fcchtigten, kalt analysierenden Artikel im j\u00fcdischen „Forward“ geht er der iranischen St\u00e4rke nach: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad looks and sounds as if he is in a panic \u2014 and the Iranian president, on tour in New York this week, […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/2007\/09\/27\/israelischer-militarexperte-wir-konnen-mit-der-iranischen-bombe-leben_791\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"J\u00f6rg Lau\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2007-09-27T20:26:28+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/files\/2007\/09\/Creveld.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"J\u00f6rg Lau\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Geschrieben von\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"J\u00f6rg Lau\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Gesch\u00e4tzte Lesezeit\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3\u00a0Minuten\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/2007\/09\/27\/israelischer-militarexperte-wir-konnen-mit-der-iranischen-bombe-leben_791\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/2007\/09\/27\/israelischer-militarexperte-wir-konnen-mit-der-iranischen-bombe-leben_791\",\"name\":\"Israelischer Milit\u00e4rexperte: Wir k\u00f6nnen mit der iranischen Bombe leben - J\u00f6rg Lau\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2007-09-27T20:26:28+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2007-09-27T20:26:28+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/#\/schema\/person\/55f0be9bfac24815791fbc852b042f57\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/2007\/09\/27\/israelischer-militarexperte-wir-konnen-mit-der-iranischen-bombe-leben_791#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"de\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/2007\/09\/27\/israelischer-militarexperte-wir-konnen-mit-der-iranischen-bombe-leben_791\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/2007\/09\/27\/israelischer-militarexperte-wir-konnen-mit-der-iranischen-bombe-leben_791#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Startseite\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Israelischer Milit\u00e4rexperte: Wir k\u00f6nnen mit der iranischen Bombe leben\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/\",\"name\":\"J\u00f6rg Lau\",\"description\":\"Ein Blog \u00fcber Religion und Politik\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"de\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/#\/schema\/person\/55f0be9bfac24815791fbc852b042f57\",\"name\":\"J\u00f6rg Lau\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"de\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a5fe39bf4f5335b8bac36eefa0b41467221b1598bfea5f05159a0199e391eed0?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a5fe39bf4f5335b8bac36eefa0b41467221b1598bfea5f05159a0199e391eed0?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"J\u00f6rg Lau\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/author\/joerg-lau\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Israelischer Milit\u00e4rexperte: Wir k\u00f6nnen mit der iranischen Bombe leben - J\u00f6rg Lau","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/blog.zeit.de\/joerglau\/2007\/09\/27\/israelischer-militarexperte-wir-konnen-mit-der-iranischen-bombe-leben_791","og_locale":"de_DE","og_type":"article","og_title":"Israelischer Milit\u00e4rexperte: Wir k\u00f6nnen mit der iranischen Bombe leben - J\u00f6rg Lau","og_description":"Israels bekanntester Milit\u00e4rhistoriker Martin van Creveld empfindet die Aufregung um das iranische Atomprogramm als Hysterie. 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