Eine erste Einschätzung des Counterterrorism Blog, während die Ereignisse noch weitergehen:
In view of the historical context, precedents and latest analysis, the most likely groups that may be behind these attacks are the Lashkar e Toiba/SIMI (they now call themselves Indian Mujahideen). These groups are Jihadists, have links to the other organizations in Kashmir but also inside Pakistan with pro-Taliban elements and eventually Al Qaeda.
The ideological identification is most likely Jihadist although the group almost surely will issue more than one release to claim the attack and put it in context.
According to Indian sources this is an operation of a very new type in India. The „emirs“ have sent these armed elements in their 20s to strike at Indian psyche.
One goal is to sink the Pakistani-Indian rapprochement. In Islamabad, the new Government is engaged in operations against the big Jihadi boys on the north western frontier.
It is quite possible that the Mumbai attacks aim at triggering tensions between the two old foes so that pressure would be released against the radicals in Pakistan. In any event, this is a large Jihadi operation against one of the emerging economies and the largest democracy in Asia.
The goal is to target India as a power engaged in the War on Terror but also to further destabilize the region, including Pakistan and its neighbor Afghanistan.