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Israel will „regime change“ in Gaza


Das meint jedenfalls Martin Kramer, der in seinem Blog eine ausführliche Analyse der Gaza-Operationen vorlegt. Kramer ist überzeugt, dass es Israel um sehr viel mehr gehe als bloss um das Ende des Raketenbeschusses.

Israel wolle Gaza wieder unter die Oberhoheit der PA (Autonomiebehörde) stellen, um (eines Tages) den Friedensprozeß wieder aufnehmen zu können und einen palästinensischen Staat unter einer einheitlichen Regierung zu ermöglichen.

The Israeli operation is meant to impress on Hamas that there is something far worse than the sanctions—that Israel is capable of hunting Hamas on air, sea, and land, at tremendous cost to Hamas and minimal cost to Israel, while much of the world stands by, and parts of it (including some Arabs) quietly applaud. Israel’s aim is not to bring down Hamas at this stage, but to compel it to accept a cease-fire on Israel’s terms—terms that leave the sanctions in place.

Many Western and Arab governments see the logic of this. They would like to see Abbas and the Palestinian Authority back in authority over Gaza, thus restoring credibility to the „peace process.“ Because they wish to see Hamas contained if not diminished, they have moved slowly or not at all to respond to calls for action to stop the fighting. The question now is how Israel turns its military moves into political moves that achieve the shared objectives of this coalition of convenience.

Kramer ist sich allerdings auch nicht sicher, ob man dieses Ziel durch einen Krieg erreichen könne.

Zu seiner Analyse paßt ein Post des ehemaligen Israel-Korrespondenten des New Yorker, Jeffrey Goldberg, der einen befreundeten Fatah-Anhänger ziitiert, der den Israelis Erfolg wünscht bei ihrem Versuch, die Hamas zu vernichten:

I’ve been talking to friends of mine, former Palestinian Authority intelligence officials (ejected from power by the Hamas coup), and they tell me that not only are they rooting for the Israelis to decimate Hamas, but that Fatah has actually been assisting the Israelis with targeting information. One of my friends — if you want to know why they’re my friends, read this book — told me that one of his comrades was thrown off a high-rise building in Gaza City last year by Hamas, and so he sheds no tears for the Hamas dead. „Let the Israelis kill them,“ he said. „They’ve brought only trouble for my people.“