Es geschehen rätselhafte Dinge im Vorfeld des Besuchs von Premier Netanjahu bei Obama. Nur drei Tage vor dem mit Spannung erwarteten Treffen in Washington veröffentlicht das CSIS eine Studie über Möglichkeiten und Kosten einer israelischen Aktion gegen Iran – komplett mit Kartenmaterial über mögliche Flugrouten und ballistischen Diagrammen für Raketeneinsätze.
Haaretz beginnt seinen Bericht über die Studie mit dem sarkastischen Satz: „Israelische Minister und Knesset-Abgeordnete, die vor der Entscheidung stehen, ob man die iranischen Atomanlagen angreifen solle, müssen jetzt nicht länger auf das Briefing der israelischen Luftwaffe warten.“
Und die lieben Mitblogger auch nicht: Hier ist die Studie zum Herunterladen.
Die drei möglichen Flugrouten nach Iran Screenshot: JL
Einige Schlußfolgerungen:
•A military strike by Israel against Iranian Nuclear Facilities is possible and the optimum route would be along the Syrian-Turkish border then over a small portion of Iraq then into Iran, and back the same route. However, the number of aircraft required, refueling along the way and getting to the targets without being detected or intercepted would be complex and high risk and would lack any assurances that the overall mission will have a high success rate.
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• The more there is an Israeli threat to the survival of the regime in Iran, the more Iran will be determined to acquire nuclear weapons. Iran would withdraw from the NPT based on the argument that it needs to acquire nuclear weapons to protect its sovereignty and any further aggression by Israel and the U.S.
• A strike by Israel on Iran will give rise to regional instability and conflict as well as terrorism.
• Iran should be engaged directly by the U.S. with an agenda open to all areas of military and non-military issues that both are in agreement or disagreement. Any realistic resolution to the Iranian nuclear program will require an approach that encompasses Military, Economic, Political interests and differences of the U.S vs Iran.
• The U.S. will have to try to make Comprehensive Verification of Iran‘s Nuclear Development Program as one of the priorities in any diplomatic dialogue, while trying at the same time to persuade Iran to stop its enrichment program. However, in this area the U.S. will have to walk and negotiate along a very fine line between Israel‘s WMD and Ballistic Missiles capabilities and the Iranian Nuclear development program. The U.S. must recognize that both are very closely
inter-related and are fueling each other. So the U.S. should be prepared to address both issues simultaneously while trying not to be perceived as though it has double standards when it comes to Israel.