Sandmonkey deutet die Ereignisse von gestern Abend:
1) Mubarak is not going to leave office without bloodshed. Any attempt for a peaceful exit has been discarded by his regime, and they are intending to fight the will of the people until the end.
2) Mubarak has burned the image of Hossam Badrawy and the Wisemen Council with his speech. Hossam Badrawy, the secretary general of the NDP, was the face of the NDP that announced Mubarak’s intenetion to abdicate power later tonight. Now the man has no credibility. Same goes for the Wiseman Council, since Mubarak’s speech was focused on how he has met their demands, which don’t include him leaving. If most of them don’t quit their posts today, I would be greatly surprised.
3) We are seeing the first possible split in the power structure in Egypt: It seems that the Armed Forces are in one camp, and the president, intelligence agencies and the republican guard in another camp. If you add to the equation the Ministery of Interior and the protesters, you have 4 players right now in an intensely unpredictable power struggle. We are now awaiting the second statement from the High council of amred forces to clearify their position once and for all. Whether the army is with or against the people will determine a lot of today’s outcome.
4) Mubarak has now put the US in a corner: He double-crossed the White House, and announced his intentions to fight foreign intervention. Adding to that the news of the arab aid, he is sending the US a clear message: „I could tell you and your aid to go to hell, and get the money from the arabs instead. Where does this leave your precious Israel? If you don’t want us to cause problems on that front, you better shut up about what we will do and get with the program, or else!“
If you take all of those factors into consideration, the situation starts looking intensely ominous. If the regime and the army has split, we could see major fighting and bloodshed today. If the Army is with the President, then they will all turn their guns on the Protesters, who are determined not to live under Mubarak rule for one extra day. It also means that he put on the line the future of the transitional government with Omar Suleiman in charge, because Suleiman’s fate seems intensely intertwined with the President now. This has become a fight for survival: it’s either the regime or the people. The bad news is, the regime has all the weapon and organization. The good news is, the people are determined and increasing in numbers and the army might step in and save us all unnecessary bloodshed.
It all depends on the army’s statement now.
Das Statement ist nun da. 10 Minuten vor den Freitagsgebeten hat ein Sprecher der Armee verkündet, man werde freie und faire Wahlen unterstützen (ohne ein Datum zu nennen). Und die Armee stellt sich auch hinter die Übertragung der Macht auf Suleiman. Die Aufhebung des Notstands wird den Protestierenden unter Bedingungen in Aussicht gestellt. Ob das reicht, um ein mögliches Blutbad nach Protesten zu verhindern?