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Warum Ölsanktionen gegen Iran nicht funktionieren


Paul Stevens vom britischen Think Tank Chatham House glaubt nicht an den Sinn der soeben von der EU beschlossenen Ölsanktionen gegen Iran:

„History has shown that since the Iranian nationalization of 1951 and the events leading to the overthrow of Dr Mossadegh in 1953, oil embargoes simply do not work.21 The international oil market is too complex, with too many players and too many options, to disguise transactions. History is littered with failed oil embargoes ranging from Cuba, Rhodesia and South Africa to the Arab oil embargo and the embargo against Iraq after 1990.
However, history appears to have passed by the decision-makers of the EU. It is also worth pointing out that an EU oil embargo would greatly strengthen the Ahmadinejad regime at a time when it is under considerable pressure, especially with  parliamentary elections looming in March. Unemployment remains very high, as does inflation. The latter has been greatly aggravated by the removal of many price subsidies in the last twelve months. Moreover, in the last few weeks the value of the Iranian rial against the dollar has fallen dramatically (at one point reaching a devaluation of over 30 per cent, before recovering somewhat). This has damaged the credibility of the government and will fairly quickly aggravate the problem of inflation. Given the crucial role of oil in Iran’s deepest political DNA, an EU embargo would put the population solidly behind the current regime.
A more effective means of putting pressure on Iran would be for the United States to persuade the EU to extend sanctions to financial transactions.“

Anmerkung: Es sind nun aber zugleich Sanktionen gegen die Iranische Zentralbank beschlossen worden.

Jetzt wüßte man gerne: Machen die Ölsanktionen diese Bank-Sanktionen, die Stevens befürwortet, effektiver, oder unterminieren sie deren Wirkung?

Entscheidend finde ich Stevvens‘ Hinweis auf die Wahlen im Iran. Kaum denkbar, dass irgendeine Fraktion des iranischen Establishments in dieser Situation für ein Einknicken gegenüber dem Westen plädieren kann.

Daher denke ich, die Sanktionen werden zu einer Eskalation des Konflikts führen, aber wohl kaum zu einer neuen Gesprächsbereitschaft (höchstens taktischer Natur).