David Kilcullen ist der intellektuelle Kopf hinter der „Surge“-Strategie im Irak. Der australische Offizier und Antiterror-Spezialist, der die „Counterinsurgency“-Planung (Bekämpfung von Aufständen) modernisiert hat, wird nun auch zum Fall Afghanistan gerne angehört. kürzlich hat er vor dem Auswärtigen Ausschuss des Senats ein Statement abgegeben, das nun vom „Small Wars Journal“ publiziert wurde. Hier die wichtigste Passage:
Afghanistan is on the brink of failure. Violence is up 40% on last year and 543% on 2005. Large parts of the country, perhaps 70% of Afghan territory, are no-go areas for security forces and government officials. Narcotics production has coalesced into enormous tracts of poppy in Taliban-controlled areas, heroin production has spiked, government legitimacy is collapsing, food and water are critically short, the insurgency is spreading and intensifying, and the Afghan Presidential elections – scheduled for 23rd August, at the end of what promises to be a fighting season of unprecedented intensity – will bring everything to a head.
Kilcullen im Irak
Whatever our long-term strategy, if we don’t now stabilize the situation, stop the rot and regain the initiative, there will be no long-term. Once the situation is stabilized there will be time for the new administration to work through its strategic choices in concert with allies and the Afghan government. If we fail to stabilize Afghanistan this year, there will be no future.
To stabilize Afghanistan, we need a surge of political effort, we need a surge of civilian expertise and financial resources, and we need to re-focus the military and police on a single critical task: protecting the population ahead of the elections. The strategic aim for 2009 should be to deliver an election result that restores the government’s legitimacy, and with it the credibility of the international effort. Which candidate gets elected matters less than ensuring the outcome meets international standards for transparency and fairness. This is a huge task. To do it we need to stop chasing the Taliban around, and focus instead on protecting Afghans where they live, partnering with the Afghan people in a close and genuine way that gives them a well-founded feeling of security, and ensuring fair elections that restore hope for a better future.
This is the critical task for 2009.
Hier ein Interview mit Kilcullen über Irak aus dem Winter 2007.