Eine Analyse auf Tehranbureau arbeitet heraus, warum Russen und Chinesen das Teheraner Regime unterstützen, obwohl sie offiziell gegen das Atomprogramm sind und Sanktionen befürworten (jedoch nie, ohne sie vorher in langen Verhandlungen vewässert zu haben):
„Russia treats Iran as a winning card in its relations with the United States. The fact that anti-American hardliners are in power in Iran is to Russia’s advantage. First, because it keeps the U.S. influence in Iran, if any at all, minimal. Second, it forces the United States to focus its attention on Iran, and less elsewhere. At the same time, by not completing the Bushehr reactor and promising to sell it the S-300 system, but not actually going through with the sale, Russia keeps the hardliners in Iran in need. The Iranian public and the reformist-democratic groups in Iran in particular, also see this, which explains their anger at Russia.
China, on the other hand, has a long history of supporting despots around the world, so long as doing so protects and expands its interests. Iran is no different in that respect for it. In Africa, for example, China supports Robert Mugabe’s regime in Zimbabwe and the Omar Al-Bashir’s in Sudan, despite all the calamities there. In East Asia, China supported the bloody Khmer Rouge regime in Cambodia who murdered 2 million Cambodians; and it supports North Korea.
Iran’s natural resources, large population, and strategic position are all important to China. China imports about 700,000 barrels of oil a day from Iran.“
Aber: Nach einem Bericht der LA Times beginnt immerhin in Russland eine Debatte darüber, ob das eigentlich eine schlaue Politik ist. Vor allem im Licht der jüngsten Ereignisse im Iran. Dort sind nämlich Russland und China zu den meist verhassten Ländern aufgestiegen, weil sie das Regime auch nach dem Coup mit den gefälschten Wahlen noch stützen. Es wird, wie in dem oben erwähnten Artikel von Tehranbureau geschildert, mittlerweile auch „Marg bar Rusieh“ (Tod Russland) und „Marg bar Chin“ (Tod China) gerufen – nach den rituellen „Tod Amerika“-Rufen.
Der Leitartikel der Nesavissimaja Gaseta vom 6. August fordert die russische Führung nun zu einer Revision ihrer Ahmadinedschad-Politik auf:
„It appears that recent events in Iran, when the opponents of Ahmadinejad shouted slogans of ‚Death to Russia,‘ indicate that Moscow’s defense of Ahmadinejad’s government has not been met with approval among a considerable portion of the Iranian population,“ the editorial said.
„It appears that the idea that Iran is a regional power which Russia could use as a trump card in relations with the West has turned out to be mistaken,“ the editorial says.
„As a matter of fact, it has turned out that Iran is using Russia to polarize the Group of Six,“ the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany, over Iran’s nuclear program.
The editorial pointed out that Russians are being singled out by the West and Iranians themselves as the primary backers of Ahmadinejad, possibly to Moscow’s disadvantage.