Fareed Zakaria, langjähriger Chefredakteur und Leitartikler von Newsweek International, hat seine letzte Kolume geschrieben, bevor er sich nun ganz der Konkurrenz von Time Warner, inklusive CNN, verschreibt. Ein Verlust:
There has been much worry about the activities of countries like Brazil and Turkey, with many Americans arguing that the two countries have become troublemakers, cutting deals with Ahmadinejad and turning away from America. But we have to understand the dynamic that is altering the power status of these countries. Twenty years ago Brazil was struggling to cast off a long legacy of dictatorship, hyperinflation, and debt. Today it is a stable democracy with impressive fiscal management, a roaring economy, and a wildly popular president. Its foreign policy reflects this confidence and a desire to break free of its older constraints.
In a speech in Geneva on Sept. 11, Brazil’s intelligent and ambitious foreign minister, Celso Amorim, explained that even eight years ago, the United States absorbed 28 percent of Brazil’s exports, but now buys only 10 percent, surpassed by China. Africa, too, is now a major trading partner for Brazil. In explaining the country’s new interest in Middle Eastern affairs, Amorim pointed out that Brazil’s 12 million Arabs would constitute the fourth or fifth-largest Arab nation in the world. Recently, in another speech, Amorim urged Brazil to be bold and expansive in its conception of its interests. “It is unusual to hear that countries should act in accordance with their means,” he said. “But the greatest mistake one could make is to underestimate [Brazil’s potential].”
Then consider Turkey. Twenty years ago, it too was perceived as a basket-case economy, dependent on American largesse, protected by the American security umbrella, and quietly seeking approval from Europe. It needed the West. But now Turkey has a booming economy, has an increasingly confident democracy, and is a major regional power. It is growing faster than every European country, and its bonds are safer than those of many Southern European nations.
Its foreign policy is becoming not so much Islamic as Ottoman, reestablishing a sphere of influence it had for 400 years. Abdullah Gül, Turkey’s sophisticated president, explains that while Turkey remains resolutely a part of the West, it is increasingly influential in the Middle East, Central Asia, and beyond. “Turkey is becoming a source of inspiration for other countries in the region,” he said to me while in New York last week.
Zwar stimmt die Pointe für Brasilien nicht ganz: Wenn ich richtig zähle, wäre Brasilien mit 12 Mio Arabern nur das zehntgrößte arabische Land, wenn auch immerhin deutlich vor Tunesien. (Und außerdem sind diese „Araber“ über einen langen Zeitraum eingewanderte Menschen vor allem aus dem Libanon und Syrien, teilweise auch christlicher Religionszugehörigkeit.) Dass erhebliche Minderheiten auch die Außenpolitik verändern, dürfte stimmen. Mehr noch als der Einfluss der Minderheiten dürfte im Fall Brasiliens der Energiehunger einer aufstrebenden Nation eine Rolle spielen.
Was die Türkei angeht: Es ist sehr provinziell, dass die Europäer vor lauter Verklemmung wegen der unlösbaren Beitrittsproblematik (niemand will die Sache absagen, niemand will sie vorantreiben) überhaupt keine Türkeipolitik haben. Haben wir kein Interesse am (Wieder-) Aufstieg einer (mehrheitlich) sunnitischen Macht in der Region, die mit Sicherheit rationaler agiert als unsere „moderaten arabischen Freunde“ und zugleich demokratischer ist und die Menschenrechte mehr achtet?