Ein Kommentar von Anthony Cordesman, dem Coautor der von mir zitierten Studie des CSIS über Israels Möglichkeit, das iranische Atomprogramm zu stoppen:
A firm U.S. commitment to Israel’s security does not mean that a U.S. president cannot confront an Israeli prime minister who tries to back away from the search for peace. It does not mean that the United States has to sacrifice its interests in the rest of the Middle East. Hopefully, Prime Minister Netanyahu will accept the new impetus that the United States has given to negotiations through the appointment of George Mitchell and that Israel cannot edge away from the two-state solution. Hopefully, Israelis will understand that a U.S. administration has no reason to tolerate the eccentricities and extremism of a foreign minister on the margins of Israel’s political life.
If not, this should be a visit when the formula is not a celebration but the announcement of “full and frank” discussions and a categorical presidential statement endorsing an active and unfaltering search for a two-state solution even if this means open disagreement during the prime minister’s visit. At some level, the United States must also press the prime minister on the issue of settlements, the treatment of Gaza, and Palestinian rights and needs in the West Bank and Jerusalem. For far too long, the hope that the Oslo Accords would trade territory for peace has led to a reality that trades terrorism for settlements.
Any such pressure on Israel, however, must be two sided. The failures in the peace process were failures by both sides. The corruption and failed governance of the Palestinian Authority was large a self-inflicted wound, as was the failure to capitalize on President Bill Clinton’s peace efforts. It was Fatah’s mistakes, corruption, and failures to create meaningful security forces that opened the way to the rise of Hamas and then lost Gaza. It is Hamas’s violence and rejectionism that has divided the Palestinian movement to the point where even moderate Israelis are beginning to lose hope. The United States must push hard for Palestinian reform, for honest and effective governance, and for further progress in creating effective Palestinian security forces.
More generally, President Obama must make it clear at every relevant occasion that the United States intends to push Arab states—as well as Israel and the Palestinians—to look at the realities of peace.
Ein interessanter Punkt seine Argumentation: Ein israelischer Angriff würde die Anlagen des Iran vermutlich nur zeitweilig zurücksetzen, nicht vollständig zerstören. Doch er würde dem Iran eine Legitimitation in den Augen der Welt verschaffen, sich nun erst recht atomar aufzurüsten.
Cordesman beschreibt auch die Notwendigkeit der USA, Israel und seinen Nachbarn eine so starke Sicherheitsgarantie gegen eine eventuelle iranische Bombe zu geben, dass der Iran davon abgeschreckt würde. Eine militärische Aktion gegen das Bombenprogramm muss darin weiter als glaubhafte Möglichkeit enthalten bleiben.